What happens after the war is a very good question. One would hope that the US government has put a great deal of thought and preparation in to the post-war reconstruction of Iraq’s infrastructure and social support systems, but the current situation in Afghanistan does leave ample room for doubt. Afghanistan is being left essentially to build its own path, with a moderate force of peacekeepers in the region to discourage any large-scale insurrections. The west is very interested in seeing the Afghan government evolve in to a stable democracy, but the truth is that the fate of Afghanistan is not of utmost concern. So long as it does not again become a haven for extremist reactionaries the west seems content to allow it to struggle along on its own.

Iraq is a different situation altogether. Strategically located in the middle of a most important geographic locale with easy air and sea access, it simply does not compare with Afghanistan in any way. Furthermore, Iraq actually has civic institutions based on a secular model that can be easily resurrected from the post-war turmoil. Afghanistan’s social and civic constructs were somewhat limited and devoted inordinately to maintaining a state of religious purity. There simply was “no there there” to begin with. In Iraq, assuming the west is so motivated, a new civic order can be established with relative ease.

One of the pressing issues will be what form the new government will take. As I read the accounts and speak with various other people it becomes somewhat clear that the one thing that will not happen will be a handing over of the government to opposition figures. This is very reassuring, for eschewing the easy path makes it necessary for the west to engage in a long-term effort at nation-building, a prospect which Iraq is uniquely suited for.

One of the primary positives for Iraq is that it has now and in the past been a secular society. There are strong religious institutions in the nation, but they do not run the government and have had little say in public policy for a very long time. Give the Iraqi people an opportunity to run their own affairs and it is not a forgone conclusion that they would turn solely to the mosques for leadership. Difficulty lies in the lack of a fundamental democratic tradition- for a very long time there has only been one real choice on any ballot and voting has been merely an exercise in stroking the ego of the current strong man.

Another large positive is oil. Iraq has a ready source of national income, meaning that it will not long require the huge influx of financial and material aid that other nations require. Assuming that any significant portion of the petroleum infrastructure escapes destruction at the hand of some misguided scorched-earth defense Iraq will immediately begin earning the capital it needs to rebuild on its own terms. This is a psychological advantage that cannot be overstated- they will be masters of their own destiny.

A very real danger in the post-war scenario is the possibility of other Arab nations offering aid. What this will doubtless consist of is food, building materials, and of course schools. To be more precise, madrasas- Islamic religious schools which have formed the basis of the groundswell of anti-western sentiment over the past decades. This alone is reason enough to keep other Middle Eastern nations out of post-war Iraq. It will be a delicate, but necessary point for the west to win.

Another very real danger is the destabilization of world oil markets. There will be a run up of oil prices once the war begins, but a quick ending should rapidly put an end to that. Once the west begins opening up Iraq’s oil production prices will likely fall somewhat. One can speculate what the west’s ultimate goals are in the Gulf region, however, precipitating another conflict directly on the heels of an successful Iraq operation is not one of them. If the west threatens to destabilize OPEC those nations will act, probably not with open warfare, but perhaps with a shut-off of oil supplies. Iraq’s reserves cannot take up all that slack. This muddies the future and must be avoided- the assorted theocracies and dictatorships of the region will need time to assimilate what has happened if any real progress is to be made at anything other than the point of a bayonet. The governments and peoples of the Middle East need to see a swift victory followed by a relatively peaceful occupation and a foundation of liberty and prosperity. That alone will put the proper fear in to those who would hold their peoples in thrall.

This can be done. The west can do it. The only question is does it have the will to see it through. Only time will tell.

Afterword: Stanley Kurtz has an interesting take on the effort to democratize Iraq, and why Iraq bears no resemblance to World War II Japan. He foresees a difficult, but not impossible task, simultaneously dragging the overly-optimistic and the reflexively pessimistic towards a more realistic point of view.

Posted on January 19th, 2003
Filed under: Politics | 2 Comments »

Life is referred to as a “vale of tears” for a reason. Even in these times I often find myself standing awestruck as I witness humanity’s ability and willingness to persevere as daily life metes out one disappointment after another. Certainly for some these are minor matters- a promotion denied, an opportunity lost, a relationship ended. For others it is more rending and visceral- oppression, starvation, disease, and death. Yet human beings stride ever onward, indomitable in the pursuit of something better than what life offers for them today.

It is this aspect of humanity that makes me optimistic regarding the future of the race. In my unique situation I can hold any circumstance to be temporary. My life has already been unimaginably long and so far as I know it shall continue to be so. I can afford patience. I routinely defer my aspirations. How a person who can at best expect ten short decades to live a full life can then present that same sort of patience is often beyond my capacity to internalize. My perspective is too skewed, meaning that while I accept it and understand it at the intellectual level it remains one of the aspects of humanity with which I have great difficulty empathizing.

I suppose this is my loss. One major difference between myself and all those about me that I have noticed is my singular lack of creativity. Those things I do well are the result of immense amounts of practice, but originality has never been my strong suit. It has occurred to me on more than one occasion that this is likely the price I pay for such a long life. It is an idea that has even been broached by writers of fiction, who often have an innate understanding of things I have learned only through long experience. My approach to difficulties consists mostly of plodding doggedly forward- perhaps the closest I come personally to the hope that sustains others.

Do not infer that this saddens me. Truth to be told I am a particularly unemotional person and I am content to be so. On the rare occasions where my emotions overrule my sense I usually end up married or in prison, and the last time it happened it took me nearly a month to dispose of all the bodies. All in all, better for everyone that I remain dispassionate.

Posted on January 16th, 2003
Filed under: Immortality, Philosophy, The Past | 3 Comments »

What is the tipping point for war? When does a build up towards hostilities morph in to an “inevitable” conflict? I noted earlier that no war is unavoidable until it begins; however, one has to be careful how one defines war. Another writer recently wrote of the broader definition of war that includes such things as economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure backed by rewards and punishments, etc. I am inclined to agree with his lengthy analysis, and by that measure war against Iraq began more than ten years ago and has been on-going since that time. What the world awaits now is an answer to the following question: will this war finally end? Oddly enough, those opposed to conventional action against Iraq are in favor of prolonging the conflict, while those in favor of invasion support bringing this war to a close.

Posted on January 15th, 2003
Filed under: Politics, The Present | 3 Comments »

I enjoy living in America, and I have spent more than eighty percent of my time here over the past three centuries. Initially, it simply afforded me a perfect social/cultural jungle to hide within. As the colonies and then the nation expanded there were always new places where I could set up a life for twenty or thirty years (in one case even longer). As time progressed it became clear to me that there really was no other place to reside if one wanted to ride the edge of cultural and material advances. The United States of America is a remarkably resilient and optimistic place and as such is uniquely prepared to face the coming challenges of the new century.

In my view there is little doubt that western cultural liberalism will prevail over the next century. The only real question is where the synthesis of European semi-democratic socialism and American semi-democratic capitalist/individualism will eventually lead. That the two will combine in some way is inevitable, but the result is likely to be surprising even to me. At the moment it is clear that America’s social/economic structure is far more adaptable than that of the vast majority of Europe, as well as being more focused on the issues of importance that shall define the next two decades. Europe’s advantages in these times are to be frank, nil; however, there are things to be admired in the desire for total social justice. In the end it will be American ingenuity and drive which will bring the European ideals as close to reality as any human utopia is likely to come.

At the moment, though, there are many unpleasant tasks to be completed, not least of which is the political reduction of fundamentalist reactionaries in the Middle East. While this is currently viewed as primarily a military and law enforcement action I find myself speculating that in the future history will pass lightly over the decade (give or take five years) of conflict that begins this century and instead count as the great accomplishments of Twenty-First Century Western Civilization the reconstruction of political order in what is now mostly a cesspool of poverty, repression, tyranny and random, indiscriminate death. Let us be absolutely clear on this point: there are cultures too warped to survive without being corrected by outside influences, and there are cultures which are, at their very core, simply Evil. Not Evil in the religious sense (since even any hint of spirituality seems to give so many people hives), rather Evil in the sense that they do nothing to promote even a semblance of progress for human dignity and freedom. Evil in that they stand in active opposition to the very things which form the core of Western Cultural Liberalism: freedom of thought, freedom of expression, freedom of movement, and oh-so-very importantly the freedom to try and to fail.

Posted on January 10th, 2003
Filed under: Philosophy, Politics, The Present | Comments Off on In To The West

A commenter has raised a common challenge: my take on history is seriously lacking in details of the great events of the world. There were other suggestions as well, in particular relating to my recounting of recent events in my life. Finally, there was the inevitable conclusion that this is all some sort of warped fantasy. All in all, this is completely expected, and the only surprise is that it has happened so quickly.

Let me begin with history. I thought I had been clear regarding my experiences over the past thirty-five centuries. Perhaps JAE simply has a difficult time accepting simple statements, though I believe that is a somewhat unfair assessment. Let me restate: over the past many centuries I have categorically NOT been a driving force in the social and scientific evolution of mankind. I have made no great discoveries, I have fomented no revolutions, I have inspired no poets (at least, none of any renown) and I have not occupied the center of any but the smallest cultural circles. I was a slave. When I was not breaking my back in the fields or working my fingers to blistered agony I was on my back beneath some sweaty bastard who in many cases did not even know my name. It was a brutish and nasty existence during which my major concern was avoiding being discovered and burned alive/fed to wolves/stoned/drowned/hanged/beheaded or suffering any of the many other myriad inventive and extraordinarily unpleasant fates of those who raised the suspicions of peoples whose understanding of reality was based on worship of some cruel and fickle assortment of spirits and gods. Forgive me if I did not spend the first 20 centuries of my life studying up on world events so that I could play twenty questions with people who are just as predisposed to cast stones as those who would have destroyed me back in the ages of ignorance.

Next, my personal life. I will offer mea culpa on this point. Until this time I have never, never, made an effort to share my experiences with anyone outside an extremely closely held group. In a very odd way I find this exhilarating. It is as if I am confiding in a very dear friend, for the very first time in my life. I am not even sure why I am doing this- even with the precautions I have taken it represents an extraordinary breach a personal privacy policy which has kept me alive for more than three thousand years. I originally intended to merely offer commentary on world events. I did not, and still do not, care if anyone pays any attention- the counter is just my way of seeing if anyone has stopped by. It does not feed my ego in any way. Yet as I began my own private life suddenly intruded and I could not help but express those events here, and I will not stop. As to your suggestion that what is going on with my friends’ grandson is some warped seduction, I assure you it is not. This young man is in severe distress and as such he represents a grave threat to the public, and by way of association, to my very dear and trusted friends. If my intervention leads to seduction, so be it. If it leads to a decision to end his life… I have killed before, and for far less worthy reasons.

Finally, is this fantasy? Occam’s Razor demands that one treat it as such. To be completely honest, I am depending on such reasoning. I may be apparently ageless, but I am convinced that I can be destroyed. I see no need to hasten that day. Please, feel free to disbelieve.

Posted on January 3rd, 2003
Filed under: Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

And so it begins. I usually make a serious relocation only when it is time to “age out” of an extant identity- this prevents, at least to some degree, the difficulty of encountering old acquaintances in my new guise. Up until the last twenty years or so this has not been a terribly difficult process; however, the advent of computer and travel technology has made me face the reality that to continue operating as I have over the past thirty-five centuries I may be required to relocate to some less-developed part of the world, a prospect I do not greet with joy.

I am not afraid of hard living. I spent most of the first half of my life in bondage of one kind or another, often in situations where mere survival required serious efforts from all involved. Even in the later centuries the standard of living I enjoyed, while above average at the time, was usually something most modern westerners would find intolerable. It is not that humanity has gone soft; rather it is that the underlying expectations have changed. There are many people who would truly relish a return to hand-to-mouth existence. Most everybody else would die fairly quickly.

It is my experience that people resist change just enough in aggregate to keep from being overwhelmed while not causing stagnation. True Luddites seldom succeed for long ? a society that turns inward and refuses to move forward is doomed to be overtaken by more dynamic peoples. Eventually they are absorbed, destroyed, or moved along by force. So, to move to some place still locked in the previous century (or even millennium) is something to be avoided. I prefer to live amongst those who delight in the future, rather than those mired in the past.

Posted on January 1st, 2003
Filed under: Philosophy, The Past, The Present | 6 Comments »

Well, Colorado proved to be… interesting. There is always a bit of discomfort, even dislocation when I meet up with old friends after a prolonged period of time. Mr. And Mrs. Professor had long ago lost any doubts they had regarding my veracity; however, it is one thing to accept the reality that is my existence intellectually, it is quite another to have to face it in the flesh. Despite everything they know about me they still expected to see a woman of some fifty years at their door when I arrived. The Professor was simply quiet. Mrs. Professor cried. All in all it went much better than other reunions I have had.

The problem with the youngest grandson is not something I can straighten out without a great deal of time and effort. Sometimes people insist on self-destruction and my general rule is to get out of their way and hope they do not take too many innocent bystanders with them. If I had met this young man under other circumstances I might have let him go on his merry way, unless I could figure out a quiet, painless method to put him down for the good of the community. Yes, it really is that bad. Since he is the grandson of good friends I feel compelled to at least attempt to salvage him, and of course, he has not hurt anyone. Yet.

I wrote earlier regarding youth, and how it is both the great engine of social and scientific advancement, while simultaneously being the wellspring of violence and destruction. It has been my experience (this will not be a surprise to anyone, I assure you) that all young people go through this wrenching of the soul- a time when all that was normal and safe and secure is called in to question, when all that is held forth as wisdom is rejected. Most go through this in a mild form- they take on new fads, some of which eventually become the foundations of new culture; they rebel against the authority of their parents and teachers. Then they grow up and move on. For some, this period is more traumatic, either due to life circumstance, or the cruel genetic lottery that bestows beauty of form and quickness of mind upon some and not others. Most of these also eventually grow up and move on. Each of the above groups carries those formative years forward with them as the foundations of their lives, with all the attendant scars, joys, fears and loves accumulated. Finally, there are those who begin this titanic struggle that accompanies the transition from pre-sentient youth to young adulthood, and begin a downward spiral from which they cannot seem to escape. These individuals will hit bottom where they will either bounce, or break.

That third category is where Grandson fits in. He is eighteen, intelligent; alienated from his peers with affectations of anti-social behavior that provide cover for the immense emotional pain he carries. I would not call him unattractive, rather his own internal demons show through- he is unkempt and overweight. I met him during my visit to Colorado and the impact was almost painful for both of us. I can see the monster inside him, and my presence merely added to his own suffering- he is terribly shy around women, and even more acutely so in the presence of particularly attractive women. He is a disaster waiting to happen.

The Professor disappointed me when he suggested, “All the boy really needs is the attentions of a pretty girl…” though I understand that what he really means is that he does not care how I help, so long as I help. Still, the implication was simplistic and unworthy of such a sharp mind. Mrs. Professor was more tactful, and more precise: “He needs someone to show him that he really does care about other people, and about himself.” In any case, what he needs from me is something more than can be delivered over a weeklong visit, so it seems I will be moving.

Posted on December 30th, 2002
Filed under: Immortality | Comments Off on Well, Colorado proved to

My private line rang the other day. Less than a dozen people know that number, and all of them know not to call unless it is supremely important. When that number rings it means something is wrong.

Just for purposes of clarity, let me explain. Throughout my thirty-five-or-so centuries, I have occasionally chosen to confide in people the true nature of my existence. In the last thirty years or so I have actually provided those people with a method to contact me if they ever feel I can help them in any way. I owe these people, they have accepted me and helped me in ways both large and small, and in every case I hold their friendship to be a precious thing.

Still- I seldom meet with my confidants. Once I move on in my ceaseless change of identity the contacts necessarily become less frequent and less personal. This protects me, but it is also a mercy to them. Despite an intellectual acceptance of the reality of my existence, most cannot truly deal with my agelessness. Better to correspond via letters and the annual phone call.

But the personal line is my concession to any who accept me on my own terms. If you need me, call.

The Professor (a suitably descriptive, yet obscure euphemism) called last Sunday night. I met him and his significant partner (Mrs. Professor- a grand and enlightened educator in her own light) in 1962. We have not met in person since 1975. When I realized who was on the line my first thought was that somebody was about to die, but the first few words from the Professor’s mouth dispelled that concern. Both of them are nearing seventy now and the Professor wanted my input on their youngest grandson, a boy of seventeen whose path was headed decidedly in the wrong direction.

After a long discussion, I booked a flight to Colorado.

There is more to this story, but I need to see how the next few days unfold before I proceed. I beg your patience.

Posted on December 20th, 2002
Filed under: Friends Found, Immortality | Comments Off on Obligations Willingly Accepted

I am not a student of history as it is taught in the schools around the world. People in whom I have confided over the centuries have universally found this hard to reconcile, but that has always been the result of their own knowledge of the past. When one studies history one is afforded the luxury of collecting all the perspectives of far-flung individuals and events. For those actually living in the times being studied, the only perspective immediately available is the one before their very eyes. Given the state of communications technology prior to the telegraph is it any wonder that one might be ignorant of what transpired in other parts of the world at any given time? Of course not.

I have lived through a few “momentous” times, but mostly I slaved away in some obscure corner of the world while events transpired far, far away and I was as ignorant of them as the normal people around me. I spent a large portion of the first half of my life as a slave, either literally or virtually. In an odd way it afforded me a level of protection, almost anonymity as I glided through one decade after another for no one affords much attention to a slave. I always managed to move on before anyone noticed that the master’s concubine never seemed to get any older.

These days I spend my efforts in more productive ways. I am a teacher by choice, and wealthy enough to teach where I please. I am quite adept at reading the financial markets, identifying trends towards peaks and stepping in long enough to make a tidy sum. The recent dotcom madness served me quite well in a number of respects, particularly in allowing me to dive in and out of certain companies as they rose as well as leveraging my technology positions to attempt to redress one of my most pressing problems: identity. I still have not found an acceptable solution to that, but I am by nature quite patient.

Posted on December 14th, 2002
Filed under: Immortality, The Past, The Present | Comments Off on History From The Trenches

“Nazi Germany taught us that sometimes you have to stop talking peace and just start dropping bombs.” If only this were the case. It is simple in retrospect to conclude that such a lesson both presented itself and was understood; however, in my experience human beings are quite adept at shading the lessons of history to accommodate whatever ideology holds sway with them at the moment. Furthermore it is seldom so clear in the thick of events just when one has crossed that line.

Obviously I am referring to the current situation in the Middle East. There are diametrically opposed ideologies in the West regarding the correct method of dealing with threats both real and perceived and these positions are being shouted from the various vantage points of punditry and demagoguery for all to hear. In the meantime there is (as there has always been) a more centrist core of leadership attempting to both navigate through the current crisis and simultaneously avoid giving either of the polarized opponents in the western ideology conflict anything to latch on to as casus belli. I am certain that the people involved would be grateful for the opportunity to leap ahead fifty or one hundred years to see what the proper course should have been.

Unfortunately for all concerned my expertise is limited to human interaction first and history as a distant second.

What I can offer is a carefully crafted circumlocution: it has been my experience that no war is inevitable until it begins, but some wars simply must be fought. There is always an option to avoid war. Compromise, capitulation, surrender; it is simply a matter of what one is willing to do to avoid war. Whether or not such actions are desirable or even possible depends upon the basic nature of the conflict and the cultural imperatives of the potential combatants. When one side is willing to bargain and the other side is bent on total victory what exactly is there to discuss? Sometimes it is the blatant display of the willingness to fight that brings the other side to the bargaining table- no rational nation/state launches a war they do not expect to win. If the potential opponent appears formidable it is likely that the belligerent party may choose another path. This is the “If you desire peace, arm for war” philosophy, and it does have its place.

War is an immensely complex cultural interaction, one that humanity has been practicing and perfecting for millennia. Even in its earliest manifestations it served multiple purposes, such as the expansion of territory, the mixing of gene pools, redistribution of wealth, testing of social structures and more. War has always left cultural change in its wake and the results are usually, though not universally, to the long-term good. When the results are not to the long-term good war is usually, though not universally, the correcting mechanism.

So, where does the Middle East fit in to all this? I noted earlier that we are embroiled in the midst of a true paradigm shift that has been on going for approximately a century. Many very wise people saw the Cold War as the defining issue; however, it is my contention that the Cold War was nothing more than a side issue, such as a sporting event where two teams must play to see which will move on to the next level of competition. In the midst of that competition both sides facilitated the growth of other combatants whose driving ideologies were far divergent from those of the two major Cold War powers. What was seen as a victory in the Cold War was merely gaining to opportunity to attempt to put to rest the vestiges of religious/intolerance motivated aggression. What makes this issue slightly more pressing than it might have been is the threat of so-called Weapons of Mass Destruction and the world dependence on oil reserves located on what could easily become major battlefields.

Interesting times indeed.

Posted on December 11th, 2002
Filed under: Politics | Comments Off on Lessons Learned And Forgotten