Predictions (Always A Bad Idea)

In the end, I suspect the truly definitive question regarding the War on Iraq will revolve around the Turkish invasion and the US response to it. I have sent out questions to several trusted correspondents and bloggers requesting input. Nonetheless, my feeling is that this will define the ultimate outcome of the current hostilities. Will the United States of America and her Allies prevent the wholesale slaughter of the Iraqi Kurds at the hands of the Turks? I suspect that in the end, they will. But this is by no means assured.

UPDATE: a slight miswording, there- substituting permit for prevent. Terribly sorry about that. As to the question of the Turks, it still remains to be seen if they are intent on a large scale deployment in to northern Iraq. I was somewhat surprised to see indications that they might be doing just that, particularly in the face of fairly stark warnings from the US and her allies. As in all such times, the details remain unclear. I am not seeing any unified analysis of this development, but as of this writing (7:25AM MST) the Turks are denying that they have entered Iraq. I cannot begin to stress strongly enough that it is crucial that Turkey be kept in check as thier relationship with the Kurds is so historically bad. Crowds may cheer coalition forces in Baghdad, but the news will be filled with pictures of Kurdish bodies if things spin out of control in the nort, and the political cost will be immense.

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