The EU

It is beginning to look as if the western governments have come to the understanding that the United States and the United Kingdom are deadly serious regarding Iraq. While nothing is ever finished until the votes are counted it appears that the French were not quite as prepared to sunder the United Nations as I had posited earlier. In particular I believe it was the recalcitrance of the Vilnius Group nations and the Gang of Eight that brought the French President up short. The truly indignant replies to Mssr. Chirac’s astoundingly arrogant and ill-advised outburst left France facing not only a loss of international stature via making her veto power in the Security Council irrelevant, but also a European Union in crisis. Between the two it is likely France shall yield, and with that done the Chinese and the Russians will decide they have had enough entertainment at the expense of the Americans and find a way to fall in line as well.

The Chinese veto in particular was never a very serious threat: they are as concerned about the North Koreans as everyone else, particularly since they are rightly seen as the North Korean’s major patron at this point: their mess, their responsibility.

The next ten days or so should by quite interesting indeed.

AFTERWORD: Pay no attention to the Russians right now. Unlike the French they have been consistent in opposition to military action and they will make crystal clear that any change of opinion is the result of events, not political shifts on the part of the French.

2 Responses to “The EU”

  1. I suspect you are correct, and all those predicting failure in the Security Council are too quick to make this assertion.

    It may be that it is vetoed, or that not enough votes will be there. But I suspect the fear of destroying the U.N. itself will be greater, for most of them.

  2. The above comment was first posted on 03/03/2003 before re-posting here.